What state do you think will be next to allow adult-use sales and why?
Arun Kurichety | Chief operations officer | Petalfast
Since Oklahoma’s recent efforts to approve adult use did not pass, I believe the next state will be Florida. Given the current momentum in the state and its robust medical market, it’s a state that could flip at any moment. At the end of January 2023, the Florida Marijuana Legalization Ballot Measure reached enough signatures, which initiated a state Supreme Court review. At the end of February 2023, the measure had 420,072 valid signatures. The measure is currently under review by the state Supreme Court.
I believe the next state we will see legalize adult-use cannabis sales will be Pennsylvania. They have an extremely strong medical market, the largest medical market in the nation actually with more than 680,000 patients registered. If they legalize recreational use, they stand to gain substantial tax revenue from the two markets. I think they have enough of a bipartisan opportunity to make it happen.
Despite a recent setback at the polls in Oklahoma, several states are likely to legalize cannabis in 2023 including Delaware, Minnesota and Ohio. Delaware’s bill has already passed out of the Legislature and is awaiting the governor’s signature. Ohio is likely to send legalization to the polls at the general election in November, where the turnout of supportive voters stands to be much higher than in the unsuccessful ‘special election’ March vote in Oklahoma. Historically, legalization laws are much more likely to pass in elections with higher voter turnout, so Ohio stands a much stronger chance of passing than Oklahoma.
I believe Florida will be the next state to legalize adult-use cannabis. Thanks in part to the migration of millennials and Gen Z moving from northern states to Florida, a cultural shift is inevitable. With things moving to the center of the aisle, the path to legalization will only become more clear. There’s already a huge campaign for legalization in Florida that is in front of the state’s supreme court. It’s a huge market with a lot of potential for industry to thrive.
The Marijuana Policy Project and Vicente are focusing on adult-use legalization in ten states over the next three years: Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. They estimate that 6.8 million new consumers live in these states and represent $91 billion in new sales. In addition, success in the ‘10 in 3’ program would shift the percentage of representatives in Congress from adult legal states from 48% to 67.5%.