BDSA remains bullish on the cannabis industry, projecting legal sales in the United States to reach $45 billion by 2027, an increase of $500 million over the cannabis-focused analytics firm’s most recent market forecast.
The company projects the legal U.S. market to hit $29.6 billion by the end of 2023, a growth rate of 12%
Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA, said in a press release that the East Coast and Midwest markets will drive most of the growth in the United States over the next five years, pointing specifically to states like Missouri, New Jersey and New York. Missouri is forecast to be the next billion-dollar market, with an expected $1.4 billion in sales in 2023.
“Although mature Western markets such as Colorado and California have experienced sales stagnation or decline due to price compression, they will continue to account for a substantial portion of legal sales through 2027,” he added.
Based on slow sales in the first quarter of 2023, BDSA forecasts California will see an overall drop in sales for the second straight year, declining by 9% to $4.8 billion.
On the flip side, Michigan has shown surprising growth and is forecast to grow by 19% by the end of 2023.
Over the next five years, Minnesota and New York are expected to be among the fastest growing legal markets, with compound annual growth rates of 68% and 71%, respectively. Both states are in the process of transitioning extremely restrictive medical programs into adult-use markets. Although New York has had massive problems with its adult-use launch, the Empire State is still projected by BDSA to total $631 million in legal sales by the end of the year and $2.5 billion by 2027.
— Garrett Rudolph